Brian Curtis
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[edit] 1 Research
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[edit] 1.1 Space Weather Forecasting
[edit] 1.1.1 Motivation
Meteorology is far ahead of space weather forecasting, but there are plenty of reasons as to why. Meteorology has a very numerous amount of data points. The United States has a system of devices called ASOS (Automated Surface Observing Systems) spread all across the country. In space weather forecasting there is a necessity for warning companies (power grid, communications, air travel) from impending geomagnetic storms, but the data points come from satellites, and there are a very small amount relative to meteorology. Also there are data models that help assist meteorologists greatly in providing forecasts that are good enough to prepare companies and people for most weather phenomena. Although models exist for space weather phenomena, they just aren't to the quality/confidence needed for space weather forecasters to feel comfortable enough to make predictions that wrong and right greatly effect the companies that follow them. The goal of this research is to benefit space weather forecasting.
- Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)
- Mission Statement: Space Weather Prediction Center continually monitors and forecasts Earth's space environment; provides accurate, reliable, and useful solar-terrestrial information; conducts and leads research and development programs to understand the environment and to improve services; advises policy makers and planners; plays a leadership role in the space weather community; and fosters a space weather services industry. Space Weather Prediction Center is the Nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings.
- A Few Space Weather Variables
- Bz (nT): The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) in the Z direction, There are studies that show that a positive Bz with all other variables being sufficient for geomagnetic storms, will not cause a storm, while a Bz in the negative with all other variables being sufficient for geomagnetic storms will cause a geomagnetic storm (but not all the time).
- Vsw (Km/s): The velocity of the solar wind is typically around 300-400Km/s. Higher solar wind speeds signify the presence of an acceleration caused typically by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).
- Density[N] (#/cm^3):
- Dst (nT):
[edit] 1.2 CCMC Run Analysis
- Search for all of my runs HERE
- Type "Brian_Curtis" in the field given
[edit] 1.2.1 Model Analysis
[edit] 1.2.2 Runs
OpenGGCM:
| Run # | Date Ran | Runtime | Bx,By,Bz | Vx,Vy,Vz | N | T | Bz shift time | Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08-06-2008 #1 | 3 Hours | 0,1,5 | -360,-28,-38 | 7 | 40000 | 1:00 | Images/Notes |
| 2 | 08-15-2008 #1 | 3 Hours | 0,1,5 | -360,-28,-38 | 7 | 40000 | 1:30 | Images/Notes |
| 3 | 08-15-2008 #2 | 6 Hours | 0,1,5 | -360,-28,-38 | 7 | 40000 | 4:00 | Images/Notes |
| 4 | 09-03-2008 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,1,5 | -360,-28,-38 | 3 | 40000 | 4:00 | Images/Notes |
| 5 | 10-06-2008 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,-28,-38 | 7 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 6 | 10-06-2008 #2 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,-28,-38 | 3 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 7 | 10-15-2008 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 7 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 8 | 10-15-2008 #2 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 3 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 9 | 01-05-2009 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 7 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 10 | 01-05-2008 #2 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 3 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 11 | 05-21-2009 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 3 | 40000 | 4:00 | Images/Notes |
OpenGGCM:(of our interest + reruns)
| Run # | Date Ran | Runtime | Bx,By,Bz | Vx,Vy,Vz | N | T | Bz shift time | Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 05-26-2009 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 3 | 40000 | 2:00 | TBD |
| 2 | 05-26-2009 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 7 | 40000 | 2:00 | TBD |
BATSRUS:
| Run # | Date Ran | Runtime | Bx,By,Bz | Vx,Vy,Vz | N | T | Bz shift time | Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 05-26-2009 #1 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 3 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 13 | 05-26-2009 #2 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 7 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
BASTRUS-RCM:
| Run # | Date Ran | Runtime | Bx,By,Bz | Vx,Vy,Vz | N | T | Bz shift time | Info |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 05-26-2009 #3 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 7 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
| 15 | 05-26-2009 #4 | 6 Hours | 0,0,5 | -360,0,0 | 3 | 40000 | 2:00 | Images/Notes |
[edit] 1.3 Articles
[edit] 1.3.1 Forecasting Aurorae and/or Geomagnetic Storms
- Solar wind time history contribution to the day-of-year variation in geomagnetic activity PDF
- Forecasting Auroral Electrojet Activity from Solar Wind Input with Neural Networks PDF
- Geomagnetic storms. Measurement and forecastingPDF
- November 2004 space weather events Real-time observations and forecastsPDF
- The Public's Changing Interpretation of the AuroraPDF
- Forecast of auroral activityPDF
- A Kp-based model of auroral boundariesPDF
- Ring current influence on auroral electrojet predictionsPDF
- A new technique for short-term forecast of auroral activityPDF
- Does the Electrical Power Industry Need Better Storm Warnings?
- Halloween Space Weather Storms of 2003PDF
- Evaluating Space Weather Forecasts of Geomagnetic Activity from a User PerspectivePDF
[edit] 1.3.2 Decision Theory
- Decision theory and the analysis of rare event space weather forecasts PDF
- WEIGEL ET AL.
- Articles referenced in this one:
- Thomson, 2000
- Mozer and Briggs, 2003 PDF
- Weigel et al., 2003/2004
- Bellanger et al., 2003
- Lindley, 1985 (Dr. Weigel bring in)
- Wilks, 2001 (Have Paper)
- Gavrishchaka and Ganguli, 2001
- Doswell et al., 1990 (Have Paper)
- Decision theory is an extremely imporatant theory to forecasters around the world. The Utility of a forecast means that the user wants the least loss and the most gain from the forecast that they have created. The paper mentions that in the past this prediction of maximum utility is created using a highly correlation based model, this meaning that the forecasters want their predicted values to be as close as possible to the real measured values. The author appears to argue that each model can not always be fit for every user, and that there is a need to create more user-relevant metrics for the models, in essence making sure that each user has a model that is optimized for their needs. This is where the author introduces a metric of evaluating the hits, misses and false alarms of each forecast.
- The Cassandra CriterionPDF
- Why is Weather Forecasting Still under a Cloud?PDF
- Matthews 1997
- The main debate of this paper seems to be science versus public perception, but Matthews ties in some probability statistics to help prove his point (Decision Theory). On one side, you have the UK Met offices giving ~80% reliable forecasts on average, and on the other side you have the average human that has to make a daily decision. There is a factor in the successful forecasting of weather phenomenon, in this paper its specifically forecasting rain, called the base rate in which ties the value of a forecast into the frequency of the phenomenon. Matthews compares the average daily rainfall in different sections of the UK noting that in regions receiving many days of rain per year the population will accept the forecast as there are many more "hits" than "misses", on the contrary, the regions in the UK that receive significantly less rain throughout the year, the population will take the forecasts less seriously. In his discussion and conclusions he notes that forecasts right now are ~80% accurate for daily forecasts, but given an hourly forecast is much more difficult which helps skew to the publics point of view on forecasts.
- Bayesian theory of probabilistic forecasting via deterministic hydrologic model PDF
- Why Should a Forecaster and a Decision Maker Use Bayes Theorem?PDF
- A Prediction and Decision Method for Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Based Partly on the Theory of GamesPDF
- Evaluating Space Weather Forecasts of Geomagnetic Activity from a User PerspectivePDF
- Thomson does a good job explaining the basics of space weather and the basics of forecasting. He mentions that the description of space weather today is "the current state of the space environment", and that the importance of space weather forecasting is for the private companies in the world that rely on the forecasts to help with decisions on when to take action on an impending geomagnetic storm. Sattelites, Space Exploration, Power Grids, Radio Communications are a few of the many things that are impacted by geomagnetic storms. Thomson introduces a few mathematical equations that when put together, will help the user gain understanding (and possibly calculate) the costs/benefits of his/her action based on a forecast of activity occuring/not occuring based on whether or not activity actually occurs. Thomson also made a small comparison between the loss structures (K) of meteorology and space weather. I felt an interesting point to this paper was the "cry wolf" understanding of the public. Meteorologists face this problem daily and it seems that space weather forecasters are in the same boat. The public will judge the forecast based on a "correct" or "incorrect" result, and not based on the parameters defined in this paper.
- ADS Library:http://adsabs.harvard.edu/cgi-bin/nph-abs_connect?library&libname=Aurorae&libid=47b99c42b4
[edit] 2 Classes
[edit] 2.1 Fall 2007
- CSI 700: (3) Numerical Methods
- CSI 710: (3) Scientific Databases
- CSI 769: (3) Magnetospheric Physics
[edit] 2.2 Spring 2008
- CSI 701: (3) Foundations of Computational Sciences
- CSI 703: (3) Scientific Visualization
- CSI 796: (2) Directed Reading and Research
- CSI 991: (1) Space Sciences Seminar
[edit] 2.3 Fall 2008
- CSI 761: (3) N-Body Methods and Particle Simulations
- CSI 796: (2) Directed Reading and Research
- CSI 899: (1) Computational Sciences and Informatics Colloquium
- PHYS 305:(3) Electromagnetic Theory
[edit] 2.4 Spring 2009
- CSI 660: (3) Space Plasma Physics
- CSI 661: (3) Astrophysics
- CSI 769: (3) Directed Reading and Research
[edit] 2.5 Fall 2009
- CSI 662: (3) Space Weather
- CSI 789: (3) Classical Electrodynamics
- CSI 769: (2) Directed Reading and Research
- CSI 991/899: (1) Space Science Seminar/CSI Colloquium
[edit] 2.6 Spring 2010 (planned)
- CSI 763: (3) Statistical methods in Space Sciences
- CSI ???: (3) ???Parallelization Class???
[edit] 3 Projects
[edit] 3.1 Space Weather Forecast Contest
- http://swxcontest.gmu.edu
- ToDo:
- Add a discussion on forecast metrics. Put a link to my derivation that PE ~= cc^2. Put a link to my paper on decision theory (Bob)
- Create a NASA/ADS library for metrics (Bob)
- From GEM:
- add contingency table to results (tooltip-like? (require javascript) Think of alternative measures of forecast quality...to be discussed on Friday. Brian)RMSE? Percentile? Skill Scores?, in essence we (forecasters) are models, and can have all these calcs
- add CCMC real-time model run results to forecast prep page. Add prediction of Vx at L1, which may be at SWPC, and Kp, which may be posted at SWPC as well.They don't make _PLANETARY_ predictions, unless we want to count mid latitude as planetary http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/latest/daypre.txt. Also I have plots of STEREO-B that are time shifted to L1, would this suffice?
- add autoregressive forecast for Kp and Vx (Brian)Are we going with 27day periodicites? If this is the case, its my understanding that we don't archive Kp AND Vx data (from SWPC), and would lead to a problem.
- Investigate submission to Space Weather (Bob)
- Add Virbo UI to website for historical data (periodicities)? Add the applet that allows you to browse time series. (Bob)
- http://lasco-www.nrl.navy.mil/daily_mpg
- Done:
- Add all columns in the results page table to the dYYYYMMDD database table for long-term storage. The username and institution and cumulative scores don't show up if the users are deleted.
- allow users to make all forecasts on one day and I thought you were not going to get me anything for my birthday.
- Write code to make a user who registers before registration deadline is over automatically full time.. and after that date part time
[edit] 3.1.1 Places that make forecasts
[edit] 3.2 Evaluation of Space Science Databases
- CSI 710, Fall 2007 Project http://aurora.gmu.edu/CSI710/index.php/Main_Page
- Image:CSI710 Project Final V3.ppt
[edit] 3.3 Magnetosphere Simulations
- CSI 769, Fall 2007 Project
- Page with simulation results Brian_Curtis_CSI769
[edit] 3.4 Matlab program to create CCMC SW input
% Creates constant input for all variables except Bz (GSM) for 180 minutes
% Bz (GSM) changes from +5 to -5 after 60 minutes.
% N=181 allows for the creation of the data point for start of the third hour
N=181;
yr=repmat(2000,N,1);
month=repmat(1,N,1);
day=repmat(1,N,1);
hr=[0:3];
hr=repmat(hr,60,1);
hr=hr(:);
mn=[0:59]';
mn=repmat(mn,4,1);
sec=repmat(0,N,1);
msec=repmat(0,N,1);
bxgsm=repmat(0,N,1);
bygsm=repmat(1,N,1);
% bzgsm is +5 for first 60 minutes than -5 for 120 minutes
% the 4th '-5' is so the program can write data into the file for hour 3
bzgsm=[5 -5 -5 -5];
bzgsm=repmat(bzgsm,60,1);
bzgsm=bzgsm(:);
vxgsm=repmat(-360,N,1);
vygsm=repmat(-28,N,1);
vzgsm=repmat(-38,N,1);
den=repmat(7,N,1);
temp=repmat(40000,N,1);
fid=fopen('sw.dat','wt');
for i=1:N
fprintf(fid,'%4d %3d %3d %3d %3d %3d %3d%10.5f%10.5f%10.5f%10.3f%10.3f%10.3f%10.3f%14.2f\n',yr(i),month(i),day(i),hr(i),mn(i),sec(i),msec(i),bxgsm(i),bygsm(i),bzgsm(i),vxgsm(i),vygsm(i),vzgsm(i),den(i),temp(i));
end
fclose(fid);
[edit] 3.5 Octave Mediawiki
Call Octave from Mediawiki
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[edit] 3.6 PHP demo
- A PHP script that will allows the user to insert information about data they would like to look at, then send them to a separate html page that will supply a link to download the data they requested from the server.
- Proceedure
- 1. I decided that in order to make it easy for the user to input the necessary information for the data retrieval that I would create an HTML form.
- This HTML form will input the information into the URL to be accessed by the php script.
<HTML> <BODY> <FORM action="phptask.php" method="get"> WHAT DATABASE?<INPUT name="database" type="text" /><br> START(YYYYMMDD)<INPUT name="start" type="text" /><br> END(YYYYMMDD)<INPUT name="end" type="text" /><br> TIME STEP SIZE<INPUT name="dt" type="text" /><br> <INPUT type="submit" /> </FORM>
- 2. The PHP script (in this case phptask.php) is set to retrieve the variables that were sent over through the URL with
$<variable>=$_GET['<variable>'];. The code then uses thesystem()command to run an octave code (which is necessary in this case to gather the data correctly).
<?
$database=$_GET['database'];
$start=$_GET['start'];
$end=$_GET['end'];
$dt=$_GET['dt'];
$com="octave -q --eval \"2+2\" 1> out.htm 2>>out.htm";
//$com="octave ts-get($database,start,end,dt)"
system($com);
print "<pre>";
include('out.htm');
print "</pre>";
?>
- Notes
- Edited $com command to include -q (removes beginning information from octave) and 1>out.htm which pipes the results to out.htm and 2>>out.htm which appends the errors to out.htm.
- Problems
- "system()" command fails when trying to execute the file on the root web directory. I found that by moving the files to a subdirectory (in my case php), the "system()" command runs correctly.
